To win elections, conservatives need to attract swing voters. Otherwise, conservatives will stand by, powerless to preserve the American system of government, free enterprise, and individual liberty. But winning without maintaining our conservative values creates no mandate.
For example, Newt Gingrich, in a speech to the Michigan legislature, proposed to pay children to read. This was a misguided and condescending attempt to appeal to an electorate that he does not understand. Such ideas reveal that Mr. Gingrich misjudges independent voters and the nature of potential swing states. Pay children to read?!
Karl Rove was much more astute. He studied where people live and their buying patterns to try to ascertain how they might vote. He then tailored messages in response to issues at hand in the hopes of binding persuadable swing voters to Republicans. This worked in 2004 when there were two major issues: the importance of continuity of leadership during wartime and anti-gay marriage initiatives.
In 2006, however, Republicans suffered at the ballot box because President George W. Bush was demeaned as a leader. Incessant Democrat and media attacks portrayed him as weak and wrong, and he did little to dispel that notion. The public, with help from his opponents, began to see his unchanging policies as a sign of inflexibility and stubbornness. Mr. Rove’s demographic analysis was not a viable technique once the party lost control of the debate and the issue became Bush’s perceived failures in the war and in spending, which undermined Republicans’ reputation as the “small government” party. After GOP losses in 2006, Mr. Bush said, “We got our voters out; they just didn’t vote for us.”
In the 2008 campaign, Senator John McCain, Arizona Republican, seemed to many to be the best candidate to attract swing voters. His compelling life story and heroism appealed to Republicans and his willingness to “cross the aisle” made him popular with Democrats (he was so acceptable to liberals that a high number of them switched over to vote for Mr. McCain in Republican primaries). But in the end, Republicans’ attempt to offer a candidate who might appeal to swing voters failed. Mr. McCain couldn’t even fill two minutes provided to him during the last debate to say why he should be president.
Swing or independent voters believe that ordinary citizens shouldn’t have to spend much time thinking about politics. Independents hope to be relieved of the burden of closely following politics, as was the intent of our founders, who expected a combination of virtuous leaders, checks and balances, and limited government to allow citizens to focus on their own lives between elections.
Many independent voters look for representatives who agree with them on issues of importance. A panderer, however, cannot be counted on. He can be persuaded by powerful forces and interests once he is elected, and a voter cannot be sure his or her opinion will be one of those forces.
Those independent voters who “vote for the person, not the party” seek the best leaders. Attempts to pander to these voters repel rather than attract their votes, because conservatives who water down their leadership qualities offer little to follow, and these people see through and resent the dishonesty involved in pandering.
Cynical independent voters believe that very few good politicians exist. Demonstrating desperation for votes at the expense of core values only confirms these voters’ belief that all politicians are dishonest.
Our hope is to explain to each of these groups why conservative ideas will work, not to try to figure out how to appeal to their possible liberal proclivities. Conservatives need to be strong leaders voters can believe in, even if they don’t agree on all issues.
Some Republicans are tired of hearing about Ronald Reagan, but Mr. Reagan was consistent. Through the course of his campaigns he convinced people of the validity of his ideas. If this no longer works, then conservatives don’t have a mandate. They’ll be voted out. But at least they’ll be voted out honestly, and will provide an alternative for voters after liberal policies fail.
Conservatives may gain ground with voters by addressing the problem of lost manufacturing jobs, which Democrats have successfully blamed on Republican policies. The Border Tax Equity Act of 2007 authorizes the U.S. to charge a tax on imported goods commensurate with the tax charged on our exported goods. This bill would help other countries—not only the United States—because it encourages the development of the middle class that so strengthens an economy, not just a manufacturing class. Staunch advocates of free trade should be cautious of knee-jerk reactions to commonsense adjustments that could be beneficial to the American people and the countries we trade with, which, after all, is the goal of free trade in the first place.
Another commonsense goal that may attract swing voters is to make people aware that the consumer actually pays corporate income taxes, because manufacturers apply the cost directly to prices. America has the second highest corporate income tax rate in the industrialized world, and these taxes actually provide an incentive for manufacturers to move overseas.
If the GOP wants to win swing voters in 2012, it will have to enact these recommendations. Time is of the essence.